2025-05-29T18:30:00Z

---

The United Nations has issued a dire warning regarding the accelerating pace of climate change, indicating a startling 70 percent probability that the Earth's average temperature will surpass the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius between the years 2025 and 2029. This alarming finding is part of a newly released report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which underscores that the planet is on a trajectory toward historically high temperatures, following record-breaking heat levels experienced in 2023 and 2024.

The 1.5°C Target Slipping Away

According to the WMO's projections, each of the next five years is expected to record near-surface global temperatures ranging from 1.2°C to 1.9°C above levels noted during the pre-industrial era. This baseline, which reflects the average temperatures from the years 1850 to 1900, is critical for evaluating the impact of greenhouse gas emissions that have surged since the onset of the industrial revolution. The WMO's forecast, which was compiled in collaboration with the UK Met Office and other prominent global meteorological centers, aligns with mounting scientific apprehension that the ambitious 1.5°C climate target established during the 2015 Paris Agreement is increasingly unattainable.

Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth, emphasized the gravity of the situation. He stated, “This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5°C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s.” Thorne further predicted that within the next two to three years, the likelihood of exceeding this critical temperature threshold would escalate to 100 percent.

New Benchmarks For Global Heat

The report also outlines an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record. These long-term climate assessments indicate that global warming has already reached perilous levels. By integrating observed temperature data from the years 2015 to 2024 with future predictions extending through to 2034, the WMO estimates current warming at approximately 1.44°C. In contrast, the Copernicus Climate Change Service offers a slightly lower estimation at 1.39°C, but warns that the critical 1.5°C threshold could be breached by mid-2029 or even sooner.

The report also highlights a concerning one percent chance that, during the years 2025 to 2029, a single year could surpass a staggering 2°C of warming—a scenario that was previously considered unlikely. Adam Scaife from the Met Office described this possibility as “shocking,” adding that the likelihood is expected to rise. He noted that similar predictions made a decade ago regarding the 1.5 °C benchmark were once dismissed, only to be validated in 2024.

Extreme Weather Signs Already Visible

The repercussions of this rapid warming are already manifesting across various continents. Recent weather patterns show that China has recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C, while the United Arab Emirates has seen mercury levels approach nearly 52°C. Pakistan has also experienced lethal winds following a severe heatwave. Meanwhile, devastating floods have impacted regions in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China, and Ghana, and wildfires have raged across vast areas of Canada.

Climatologist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London remarked, “We’ve already hit a dangerous level of warming.” She further criticized reliance on fossil fuels, stating, “Relying on oil, gas, and coal in 2025 is total lunacy.” This sentiment is echoed by Davide Faranda of France’s CNRS, who emphasized the unequivocal scientific consensus regarding the urgent need for significant reductions in fossil fuel emissions and a swift transition to renewable energy sources.

Polar Regions And Rain Patterns Also Shifting

The report points out that warming in the Arctic continues to accelerate at a rate faster than the global average. Predictions for the years 2025 to 2029 suggest ongoing loss of sea ice in critical regions such as the Barents Sea, the Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. When it comes to precipitation patterns, areas including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia are expected to experience increased rainfall, while the Amazon basin is likely to face drier conditions.

These projections indicate a future characterized by increasing climatic instability, where each incremental degree of warming heightens the probability of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, severe storms, prolonged droughts, and further ice melt. Ko Barrett, the WMO’s deputy secretary-general, concluded with a sobering outlook: “There will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems, and our planet.”