2025-06-01T21:06:56Z

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Poland finds itself at a crossroads of political uncertainty following the Sunday presidential run-off, which concluded with a razor-thin margin. The contest, characterized by an overwhelming voter turnout of nearly 73%, saw early projections indicating a gap of just 70,000 votes among the nation’s 29 million registered voters.

In this closely watched election, the pro-European Union candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, who received support from the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, held a slight lead with 50.3% of the votes counted at the close of polls. However, trailing closely behind was his opponent, Karol Nawrocki, representing the national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who garnered 49.7% according to exit polling data from TVP, the public broadcaster.

The political landscape shifted dramatically during the night, as a late poll unexpectedly placed Nawrocki ahead with 50.7%, while Trzaskowski’s count slipped to 49.3%. Despite this shift, Trzaskowski appeared soon after polls closed to declare, “We won, we did everything that could be done.” He expressed his commitment to serve as the president for all Poles, stating, “I will be the president of all Poles — of all Polish women and men.”

Contrarily, there was no indication of concession from Nawrocki’s camp. Addressing his supporters, who cheered “President Nawrocki,” the candidate vowed, “This night will be ours yet.” He emphasized the unification of the patriotic faction in Poland, asserting the need for a “normal Poland without illegal immigrants.”

Political analysts suggest that the final results, expected to be confirmed on Monday, could hinge on the non-resident vote. There is potential for legal challenges from the losing candidate, which adds another layer of complexity to the unfolding political scenario.

In the first round of voting two weeks prior, Trzaskowski narrowly led Nawrocki by just two points. However, he found solace in the fact that he had performed significantly better among non-resident voters, securing a six-point advantage over his overall results. Conversely, Nawrocki’s appeal within the Polish diaspora in the United States was notable, as he enjoyed a 12-point lead following an endorsement from former President Donald Trump during a visit to the White House.

While Prime Minister Tusk remained non-committal on the evening of the elections, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski praised Nawrocki for standing firm against what he described as a “Niagara of lies” perpetrated by rivals and the media. He declared, “We have won because we are right, because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present and about all that’s wrong in our country today.”

The election results underscore the deep divisions within Poland, a nation of nearly 38 million people, and present significant challenges for Tusk’s government moving forward. The centrist-liberal Prime Minister Tusk returned to power in December 2023, tasked with undoing PiS policies, which range from controversial court reforms to stringent abortion restrictions.

However, outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who holds ties to PiS, has proven to be a formidable opponent, often vetoing critical legislation proposed by Tusk’s administration. Tusk's coalition, which includes both farmers and urban liberals, has faced internal strife over contentious issues such as abortion rights, further complicating the political landscape.

With the prospect of another term for a PiS-aligned president looming, Tusk is acutely aware of the potential ramifications: a further consolidation of power that could hinder legislative ambitions, complicate relations with the European Union, and possibly trigger a snap election.

The narrow electoral results have reignited discussions about Trzaskowski's viability as a candidate, especially in light of his previous loss in the presidential race five years ago. Back then, he emerged as a key opposition figure amid rising discontent with the PiS government and its presidential occupant. Now, however, he must contend with voter frustrations directed at his administration, as many see him as the embodiment of the status quo.

Trzaskowski, who began his political journey as a teenage volunteer during Poland's first partially free elections in 1989, has been touted as a multilingual, pro-EU advocate with a progressive agenda, particularly around LGBT rights. Nonetheless, he has faced backlash, especially from conservative voters who perceive him as representing an elite class disconnected from the rural heartlands of Poland.

Even within his stronghold of Warsaw, where he has served as mayor for seven years, Trzaskowski's reputation is mixed. A senior political ally publicly criticized him for conducting a “lazy, arrogant campaign” that lacked clear messaging. A week before the election, in a rally aimed at unifying voters, Trzaskowski promised to be a president who would engage with all citizens.

However, first-round analyses revealed that his commitments to liberalize Poland’s restrictive abortion laws and to recognize same-sex civil partnerships alienated more conservative voters, particularly in the eastern and southeastern regions.
In contrast, Nawrocki, who pitched himself as a defender of Polish identity against elitist threats, maintained notable popularity despite facing a series of scandals, including allegations regarding an undeclared second residence and ties to the underworld.