2025-04-07T05:43:35Z

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Recent assessments from Western analysts indicate a substantial decline in the pace of territorial gains made by Russian forces during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a prominent think tank based in Washington, D.C., the monthly rate of advance for Russian troops has dropped to less than a third of what it was back in November. This dramatic slowdown comes at a time when the war's dynamics are shifting, potentially altering the long-term trajectory of the conflict.

In March alone, the ISW reported that Russian forces managed to capture approximately 203 square kilometers (equivalent to about 78 square miles) of Ukrainian territory. This represents a stark contrast to their performance in November, during which Russian troops gained about 242 square miles. At that time, Moscow had intensified its efforts on the eastern front, employing a strategy of relentless small-scale ground assaults designed to deplete Ukrainian ammunition reserves and drones.

Further corroborating this trend, the UK's Defense Ministry provided an even more pronounced analysis, claiming that Russia's total rate of advance had dwindled to merely a fifth of what it was in November. In a recent intelligence update, the ministry estimated that Russia seized an additional 55 square miles in March, a stark decline from the 281 square miles reported in November.

The Defense Ministry noted, “Russia's rate of advance has dropped month by month since November 2024, when its forces seized more than 700 square kilometers.” However, the ministry did not disclose the specific methodology behind its assessment. It is important to note that these intelligence updates often utilize data and statistics derived from the Ukrainian government. Meanwhile, the ISW relied on geolocated footage for its evaluations, providing a degree of transparency in their findings.

Interestingly, neither the ISW nor the UK Defense Ministry addressed the impact of winter weather conditions on the battlefield over the past few months. The harsh winter typically introduces various logistical challenges and terrain difficulties, which can significantly dampen the intensity of combat operations.

This slowdown in Russian advancements has been partially attributed to Ukraine's recent counteroffensives, especially around the critical locations of Toretsk and Pokrovsk. These towns are not only strategically significant but also serve as vital supply routes for Ukrainian forces positioned in the eastern regions. Just a few months ago, in early 2025, Toretsk was largely under Russian control, but fierce fighting has erupted again as Ukrainian troops launch counterattacks aimed at encircling Russian positions in the north.

The UK's Defense Ministry noted that the limited advances made by Russia in March were primarily concentrated in the Donetsk region, yet it added that Moscow “did not improve its operational position” there. This assertion points to the challenges faced by Russian forces as they struggle to maintain their ground, despite incurring heavy losses.

Indeed, the cost of these ground assault tactics has been staggering. Estimates from Ukrainian and Western sources suggest that during the conflict's most intense periods in the fall, Russia suffered daily casualties of up to 1,500 soldiers killed or wounded. While this aggressive strategy resulted in an estimated acquisition of 1,600 square miles of Ukrainian territory in 2024, it has come at a devastating price—Ukraine claims approximately 427,000 Russian soldiers have been either killed or wounded.

This grim reality has fostered a prevailing narrative in Ukraine and across Europe, suggesting that the key to victory for Kyiv lies in outlasting Russia's costly expenditures of personnel and resources. The Kremlin faces escalating pressures to compensate families of the fallen and injured soldiers, in addition to the financial burden of offering substantial bonuses to attract thousands of new recruits.

As the war continues to unfold, the dynamics on the battlefield remain critical. Russia's Ministry of Defense has yet to respond to requests for comment from Business Insider made outside regular business hours, leaving many questions unanswered about the Kremlin's strategy and future plans in this protracted conflict.