2025-05-05T01:35:00Z

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In a significant move that has raised tensions in the region, India has officially ceased water flow to Pakistan from the Baglihar Dam, located on the Chenab River. This decision is part of a broader strategy to restrict water supplies to its neighbor, with Indian officials asserting they will not allow “a single drop” to flow from the Indus River system to Pakistan. The Indian government is now also preparing to reduce water runoffs from the Kishanganga project on the Jhelum River.

Following a week of discussions and hydrological assessments, India initiated de-silting operations at the Baglihar dam, which led to the lowering of sluice gates. This action has drastically decreased the downstream water flow to Pakistan by an alarming 90%. According to an official from the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), “We have closed the gates of the Baglihar hydel power project. We had done de-silting of the reservoir and it has to be refilled. The process was started on Saturday,” he stated, although he wished to remain anonymous.

This decision by India came swiftly after Pakistan conducted a test of its surface-to-surface ballistic missile on Saturday, underscoring the escalating military tensions between the two countries. Furthermore, India has banned the docking of any ships bearing the Pakistani flag in all ports across the country, reflecting a broader strategy of asserting control over water resources and defense measures.

The Kishanganga Dam, situated in the picturesque but politically sensitive Gurez Valley in the northwestern Himalayas, is also set to undergo significant maintenance work shortly, which will effectively halt all downstream water flow to Pakistan. This has raised concerns in Islamabad, which has previously lodged objections regarding the designs of both the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams.

The backdrop to these developments includes India's recent suspension of the long-standing Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, a treaty that has governed the distribution of river waters for over six decades. The suspension occurred just a day after a terrorist attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam area resulted in the deaths of numerous tourists, further straining relations between the two nations. An official from the NHPC indicated, “since India has kept the IWT in abeyance, we are exploring all possible ways to use our river waters for the benefit of our citizens.”

On Saturday, the Jal Shakti Ministry provided an update to the Union Home Ministry on several initiatives aimed at enhancing water supply to northern states derived from the Indus river system. This plan is part of a larger strategy that includes implementing stringent punitive measures against Pakistan. It is noteworthy that nearly 50 engineers from the NHPC are already stationed in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir to oversee these operations.

In the context of these water management strategies, India has made progress on four ongoing hydropower projects situated on the Chenab River and its tributaries in Jammu and Kashmir. These projects are on track for commissioning between 2027 and 2028. The four key projects—Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW), and Ratle (850 MW)—are being executed through a joint venture between NHPC and the Jammu and Kashmir State Power Development Corporation (JKSPDC). Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stones for the Pakal Dul, Kiru, and Kwar projects on various dates in 2018, 2019, and 2022, respectively.

As per the latest updates, the Pakal Dul project has achieved 66 percent completion, Kiru is at 55 percent, Kwar has made 19 percent progress, and Ratle is at 21 percent. The Kirthai project, with a capacity of 930 MW, is also progressing with pending clearances. Regarding the Ratle project, a coffer dam, which is a pre-dam structure, is nearing completion, and officials expect it to be finalized by November 2028. The work on this project has gained considerable momentum in 2023.

Pakistan has vocally protested against both the Ratle and Kishanganga projects, alleging that their designs are in direct violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. In June 2024, a five-member delegation from Pakistan, along with a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank, Michel Lino, visited the Ratle power project site in Drabshalla, Kishtwar, to assess the situation firsthand.

In total, the Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle projects will have a combined hydropower capacity of 3,014 MW and are expected to generate more than 10,541 million units (MU) of electricity annually. Jammu and Kashmir is estimated to hold a hydropower potential of 18,000 MW, with the Chenab basin alone accounting for 11,283 MW of that potential. However, to date, only 23.81% of the total identified capacity has been harnessed, highlighting the significant untapped resources in the region.