2025-07-29T18:26:58Z

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High in the rugged terrains of Canada’s Yukon Territory, a seismic gun is being cocked, and it’s aimed at the tiny community of Dawson City—population just 1,600. Imagine living in a place that hasn’t seen a significant earthquake in 12,000 years, only to find out that the ground beneath you could explode at any moment. According to a groundbreaking study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, a major earthquake could be just around the corner, and it’s all due to a dormant giant known as the Tintina Fault.

This 1,000 km (620 mi) fault stretches across the Yukon and into Alaska, lying mostly silent for millennia. But that calm is misleading. While Theron Finley, a recent PhD graduate from the University of Victoria and lead author of the study, reports only minor tremors of magnitude 3 to 4 in recent decades, the geological record reveals a more ominous reality. The Tintina Fault, it seems, is a sleeping giant that might just awaken with a terrifying vengeance.

What piqued the interest of Finley and his fellow researchers was a 130-km (80 mi) segment of this fault that runs ominously close to Dawson City. Their detailed analysis, aided by high-resolution imagery from drones and satellites, unveiled evidence of powerful earthquakes in the region's relatively recent geological past. These earthquakes date back to the Quaternary Period, a time frame we often associate with the rise of human civilizations. The researchers discovered a fault scarp—essentially a visible scar in the Earth’s surface—indicating a massive shift of 1,000 m (3,280 ft) that occurred approximately 2.6 million years ago.

Another discovery revealed a smaller yet significant scarp misaligned by 75 m (250 ft), linked to an earthquake that happened around 132,000 years ago. However, the last 12,000 years have seen a surprising lack of activity, leading current residents to believe they might be safe. But, as Finley emphasizes, just because the ground hasn’t shaken doesn’t mean it isn’t preparing to. The Tintina Fault is slowly accumulating strain at a rate of 0.2 mm to 0.8 mm per year, a warning sign that could lead to catastrophic results.

“We determined that future earthquakes on the Tintina fault could exceed magnitude 7.5,” stated Finley. To put this into perspective, a magnitude of 7.5 could unleash devastation comparable to the infamous 1976 Tangshan earthquake in China, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of lives lost, or the tragic 2020 earthquake in Haiti that claimed around 300,000 lives.

Although Dawson City and the Yukon are less densely populated compared to these locations, the potential for loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and triggered landslides is significant. The researchers concluded, “Our results have significant implications for seismic hazard in the Yukon Territory and neighboring Alaska,” signalling that if 12,000 years have passed since the last major quake, the region may be overdue for a serious jolt.

While scientists cannot predict when this next earthquake might occur, they urge residents to prepare for the unexpected. Go bags, survival kits, and evacuation plans are certainly wise precautions. After all, the Earth has its own timeline, and when it decides to shake, we can only brace ourselves and react.