2025-05-15T09:11:11Z

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A recent study published in The Lancet Planetary Health has raised alarms regarding the potential for dengue and chikungunya to become endemic in Europe. This research highlights the implications of climate change on the spread of these diseases, traditionally confined to tropical regions but now making inroads into temperate climates.

The study suggests that the tiger mosquito, known scientifically as Aedes albopictus, is advancing into northern territories as global temperatures rise. These mosquitoes are notorious for transmitting not only dengue and chikungunya but also other viruses like Zika and West Nile, which were not the focus of this particular study.

Historically, dengue and chikungunya have posed serious health risks, leading to high fevers and, in some instances, severe complications that can prove fatal. Approximately half of the global population is currently at risk, a statistic that underscores the urgent need for preventive measures as these diseases gain a foothold in new regions.

The researchers conducted a detailed analysis of the evolution of these mosquito-borne diseases over the past 35 years, identifying a significant increase in both the frequency and severity of outbreaks since 2010. Notably, in 2024, the hottest year on record, Europe documented just over 300 cases of dengue, a sharp contrast to the 275 cases reported over the previous 15 years. This data suggests that although outbreaks are occurring, they are still relatively rare in the context of the overall population.

In recent years, outbreaks of dengue have been reported in several European countries, including Italy, Croatia, France, and Spain. The research team concluded, “Our findings highlight that the EU is transitioning from sporadic outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases towards an endemic state.” This transition is particularly concerning given the projection that, under the worst-case climate change scenarios, the rate of outbreaks could increase by up to five times by the year 2060.

The study also pointed out a disparity in outbreak frequency between wealthier and poorer regions. Areas with more resources often have better testing capabilities, which may lead to a higher detection rate of cases. In contrast, the underreporting of cases in less affluent regions could mask the true extent of the problem.

Interestingly, the French Indian Ocean island of Réunion is currently grappling with a severe chikungunya outbreak, illustrating that the threat of these diseases is not confined to Europe and has global implications.

This research serves as a crucial reminder of how climate change can influence public health, especially as the world grapples with rising temperatures. The potential for dengue and chikungunya to establish themselves in Europe underscores the need for heightened surveillance and preventive strategies to mitigate the health risks associated with these diseases.

For those interested in a deeper understanding of this important topic, the study is available through The Lancet Planetary Health, with the authors emphasizing the urgent need for public health initiatives to address the changing landscape of vector-borne diseases.