2025-09-01T11:03:45Z

Bitcoin enthusiasts, brace yourselves! The future of the BTC bull run teeters on a knife's edge as the critical $100,000 support level becomes a battleground amidst whale profit-taking and economic uncertainties. Can Bitcoin rebound, or is this the calm before the storm?

Michael Saylor, the outspoken advocate for Bitcoin, boldly claims, “Bitcoin is still on sale.” With Bitcoin [BTC] closing August down 6.5% from its staggering $115,778 open, his assertion begs the question: is now the time to buy, or are we in for another rough ride? Saylor's company, MSTR, has been quietly accumulating Bitcoin, making three strategic purchases throughout August at an average price of $116,168 per coin. Yet, with those positions currently sitting at a 7.3% unrealized loss, it raises concerns about whether MSTR's strategy is a calculated risk or if it could sideline traders, reinforcing the idea that the BTC bull run hasn’t fully reached its bottom yet.

As we kick off September, a month notorious for Bitcoin's struggles, the economic calendar is packed with data that could shift market dynamics. Key reports are set to release, including the ISM manufacturing PMI, employment figures, initial jobless claims, trade balance, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate—all unfolding during what has historically been a bearish month for BTC.

The pivotal moment will undoubtedly be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17th. Current market sentiment suggests an 86.4% chance of a rate cut, a 13.6% chance of no change, and a 0% probability of a hike. For the Bitcoin market, understanding these macroeconomic factors is crucial as they paint the picture of MSTR’s aggressive Bitcoin investment.

Here’s the crux: the U.S. macro landscape is vital for supporting MSTR’s Bitcoin position. Recently, July’s CPI stood at 2.7%, slightly below the forecast of 2.8%, while core CPI ticked up 0.3%, its sharpest increase in half a year. This cooling inflation prompted the FOMC to hold rates steady, coinciding with Bitcoin's previous peak of $124,000 during the last bull run. As we navigate the current economic climate, the looming question remains: can these conditions ignite another BTC rally, fortifying MSTR's bold stance?

With September already casting a shadow over Bitcoin's prospects, it's worth noting that this month has historically been a rough patch for the cryptocurrency, averaging a -3.5% month-over-month ROI. This pattern follows June’s mild -0.14% monthly return. Traders are on high alert for these seasonal trends, especially when fresh on-chain data reveals significant spikes in realized profits from new Bitcoin whales. This is the largest surge seen in over a month, reminiscent of mid-July, when the bull run peaked at $123,000.

Interestingly, this behavior suggests that Bitcoin's smart money is strategically repositioning, even as the absence of the typical “buy the fear” mentality from whales contrasts with MSTR’s aggressive investment. Traders appear to be bracing for a repeat of September’s usual downturn, despite an expected rate cut in the works.

In reality, the Fed faces little incentive to cut rates amidst ongoing economic uncertainties following tariffs, leading many to believe that a rate cut may not be on the horizon. Consequently, all indications suggest a bearish trend ahead, with the $100k mark now serving as a crucial support level and potential pivot point for the BTC bull run.